I am not going to be drawn into a full discussion of the issues
arising from or the effect of a Brexit on the Channel Islands; that
would take a week to go through thoroughly.
However, taking a step back, perhaps those who recall the
lead-up to the Single European Act of 1992, which was a first and
unsuccessful attempt at what is now the Union, will remenber the
state of mind of that time.
What better then than to recall the wise words of Lord Rippon,
who headed up the negotiation of the United Kingdom's accession in
1972, when he addressed the IoD in Jersey on 23rd
February, 1989, or if you were not able to attend read the summary of his comments then? Nota bene:
my first name, Rodger is also spelt with a d.
His actual speech was a lot fuller on the implications of the
SEA, and was based upon a the solid reference of head of the UK
negotiating team, who bore in mind the Crown Dependencies and their
particular position. They are after all Peculiars of the Crown.
I particularly enjoyed his summary of the negotiating tactic
of leaving the Crown Peculiars until last, once the heavy lifting
was over, and then swooping like a hawk on the issue to ensure that
the constitutional position of the Islands in relation to the
United Kingdom was in fact defined clearly and then extended to the
European Communities to the extent from which we benefit, for the
moment, in relation to the Union. The one concession being the
general non-discrimination or equivalent treatment article 4 of the
Protocol, which, on the effective withdrawal of the United Kingdom
will cease to apply.
To gauge the effects, perhaps it is best to remember what the
arrangements between the Crown Dependencies and the EU actually
cover - these are in fact quite minimal - then check how these have
evolved by reference to the indirect effect of the progress made in
the Union since its institution, and then see what will change in
the absence of a relationship defined by the arrangements
themselves. There has been substantial adaptation by the
Channel Islands and the Isle of Man to the European Union's
development which may need as much review as those which have taken
place in the United Kingdom.
One thing that will not change is the Succession issue as both
the UK and in consequence its Crown Dependencies will definitely
respectively be a Third State and third territories twice removed
for the purposes of Regulation 650/2012!
What is clear is the the British have seriously overdone the
legal implications of being in Europe; the reason for that is that
the laws of the British Isles, being insular, are fundamentally
different to those in the continent of Europe. Most of the
complaining as to Brussels diktats results from the manner in which
the British actually implement these, and do so with a fervour for
niceties and thoroughness that other States do not have. The
British Civil services have literally cooked our respective geese,
by making the most of a direction from abroad, which appears to be
more incontrovertible than it actually is. Economic laws are
no more than directive, not obligatory. It was an economic union,
not a legal one!
If you really want to know what is going to happen in the UK,
then the following Bar Council paper might assist, as it aims to
provide a non-partisan view of the possible outcomes.
Then by removing the items that are not in the "arrangements',
you can get a clearer idea of the effect, or non-effect of a
Brexit, were it to occur.
The Bar Council paper covers three major aspects of reforming
the UK's relationship with the EU, or withdrawing.
Executive summary
Paper I "New Settlement or Brexit? Key legal
issues for the UK's post-referendum relationship with the
EU".
Paper II is entitled "Reform or withdrawal?
The legal impact on finance, business, work and free
movement".
Paper III is entitled "Reform or withdrawal?
Rights and justice".
In addition, the report points to key areas of law which would
be affected by withdrawal from the EU and require UK law makers to
adapt or replace them. Consumer law, environmental laws, as well as
employment and family laws are among those areas which would be
affected.
Obviously the Crown Dependencies are not subject to the majority
of these effects directly, as we are only within the Union to the
extent determined by the TFEU arrangements iterated in Protocol III
to the Treaty of Accession of the United Kingdom of
1972. However what happens in the United Kingdom may influence
policy decisions here.
It is perhaps best to consider the effect that a Brexit
would have on our relationship with our immediate neighbour,
France, and the neighbouring French départements. Obviously
Portuguese and other EU immigrants will be concerned as ot the
change in their status, and that of their families.
There has been no indication from the Jersey authorities as yet
as to what their policies would be. There is no doubt that a
series of scenarios have been analysed and responses prepared
Brussels is literally frozen over and immobile as the shock of
such a political change will mean serious implications for the
administrative structures there. The only "noises off" at the
moment are political.